El Niño brings unpredictability and hardship for farmers in Isaan, rethinking policies for farmers

The rains that once gave rice farmers hope have become unpredictable. The rainy season arrives, yet rains pause; at times heavy downpours cause floods, while at other times paddies dry out and rice plants suffer from lack of water. For farmers in the Northeast, climate variability is more than a seasonal shift — it means higher costs, uncertain yields, and incomes that may not cover expenses for the year.

In 2026 the worry grew sharper when rains subsided in May and June, leaving farmers without enough water for rice cultivation. Although cloud-seeding efforts were made to ease the problem, rainfall remained insufficient. At the same time, changing weather created new farming challenges, from weed outbreaks to the risk that rice plants cannot adapt quickly enough to rapid shifts in conditions.

Amid rising production costs, unstable rice prices, and uncontrollable weather, Northeastern farmers are calling on government policy for answers — to what extent will the state help share the risks they bear, so that farming is not left to chance?

Life of A Farmer in Roi-Et

“What will become of our home when it’s dry one moment and raining the next?”

Tienthong Jaipakdi, a farmer from Roi Et province, complained that this year climate variability is the main reason farming has become even harder — even though it was already difficult before.

Tienthong said that during May to June 2026 the rains paused, leaving farmers facing drought and a lack of water for rice cultivation. Although state agencies carried out cloud seeding to help farmers — which provided some relief — the amount of rainfall was still insufficient for their needs.

“When the rains stop for stretches, the problems that follow are weeds — like grass and water spinach — which tend to grow when the rain stops and make farming even more difficult,” Tienthong lamented.

The erratic weather is therefore another factor that causes farmers to feel discouraged about rice farming, and it is something they cannot control or avoid.

Price guarantees and relief for farmers

Rice farming’s  lack of profitability  makes Tienthong want the government to guarantee rice prices to stabilize income and to provide immediate relief to farmers when droughts or floods disrupt production. He also wants controls on fertilizer and fuel prices, as well as the cost of agricultural equipment, to reduce production-cost burdens.

According to the 2023 agricultural census, the Northeast has 3,982,045 rice-farming households, most of which plant rice only once a year — the same situation as Tienthong. To farm 4 rai of land, Tienthong must bear production costs of 4,660 baht per rai, broken down as follows:

These costs are similar to data from the Sup Kaset Inter website, which lists production expenses at 4,900 baht per rai.

Information from Thai PBS states that the Commerce Ministry will propose to the National Rice Policy and Management Committee (NRPMC) the announcement of paddy prices for the 2025/26 production year as follows: Hom Mali paddy 15,200–16,500 baht per ton; Pathum Thani paddy 8,200–8,700 baht per ton; ordinary white paddy 6,100–6,800 baht per ton; glutinous paddy 8,200–9,000 baht per ton.

After the 2025/26 harvest, Tienthong’s yield was about 0.8 ton per rai. The farm-gate price at the mill was 12 baht per kilogram, which is a moderate purchase price, but he does not sell all his produce because he must keep some for household consumption throughout the year. Comparing the sale revenue to production costs, Tienthong summed it up in Isaan dialect simply as “อยู่ทุน” — breaking even.

How much rice will this season produce?

On 15 May 2026 the Meteorological Department declared that Thailand had officially entered the rainy season, with rain covering the upper part of the country and the season expected to end around December. 

Although May did see rain as the department announced, rainfall amounts ran counter to the season. The cause is the El Niño phenomenon: sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are higher than normal, altering wind, rain and pressure patterns. This has led to unusually high temperatures during the hot season in Thailand and reduced rainfall during the rainy season.

Scientists estimate a 63 percent chance that conditions could materialize between November 2026 and January 2027, which could become the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950.

Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department reports that rainfall will increase from the end of July into early August this year because a monsoon trough will pass over the upper part of Thailand, causing heavy rains in some parts of Isaan and triggering flash floods.

Tienthong and her neighbors are therefore worried about how much of their harvest they will be able to sell this year. Water shortages for rice cultivation can create new problems: rice plants may not be able to adapt quickly, fields can become waterlogged causing root rot, and pest outbreaks may occur.

Although farmers face these problems, the government has not yet provided clear assistance. Srawut Nueangjamnong, secretary to the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives and chair of the National Rice Policy and Management Committee (NRPMC) , will convene his committee to consider what kinds of support farmers should receive and in what form would be most appropriate. A proposed relief payment of 1,000–2,000 baht per rai is under consideration, but the NRPMC has not reached a definitive decision.

Meanwhile, Wichai Srinawakul, president of the Northeast Rice Millers Association and a member of the NRPMC, said the association proposes changing the relief scheme from 1,000 baht per rai to 1,000 baht per ton, using a digital system to ensure transparency and verifiability. This, he said, would allow the state to reduce the budget from the original 58 billion baht to 35 billion baht, a cut of 23 billion baht.

Even though it is unclear how the government will help Thai rice farmers, what farmers can do now is keep working their fields, relying mainly on themselves and carrying this burden amid uncertainty.

Looking ahead for Isaan farmers this year, rice farming is like a gamble: they must farm under uncertain weather and with unclear prospects for government relief, while production costs continue to rise.

Despite occasional losses, Tienthong and many other farmers continue to persevere. She sums it up briefly:

“After I quit my job in Bangkok I returned home, where we have paddy fields. If I don’t farm, I don’t know what else to do, because farming is the occupation I was born into.”

She simply hopes that the proceeds from this year’s crop will bring a lump sum to the family to help cover daily living expenses, sustain their livelihood and repay debts, easing the family’s hardship.